The race to the 2026 World Cup in Europe has begun, and as always, the fight for a spot promises plenty of surprises. I have dug into the teams and their chances and am ready to share my first predictions. Let’s get started!
Overview of the 2026 UEFA Qualification Format
The European World Cup qualifiers have a fresh twist this time: Europe now has 16 spots in the tournament, giving more teams a chance to qualify. The 54 teams are split into 12 groups, with some having four teams and others having five. The group winners qualify directly for the World Cup.
Teams finishing second still have hope through the playoffs, where they join four strong teams from the Nations League.
Group-by-Group Predictions
Let’s look closely at each group and see which teams are favorites, challengers, and possible surprises on the road to the 2026 World Cup.
Group A
Germany enters as the clear favorite with odds around 1.30 (77% chance) to win the group and qualify directly. Slovakia is their main competition, with odds of about 5.00 (a 15% chance). Although Germany is predicted to win, Slovakia might make it to the playoffs. Northern Ireland and Luxembourg are unlikely to win.
Group B
Switzerland leads with odds of about 1.80 (56%) to win the group, followed by Sweden at 3.50 (25%). Switzerland’s consistent performance in past qualifiers gives them an advantage. However, Sweden’s strong defense could make the second-place fight interesting. Slovenia and Kosovo face tougher odds.
Group C
Denmark, like Germany, is recognized as the favourite to win the group. Their recent wins and strong team make them likely to qualify directly. My research shows that the odds are 1.40, meaning they have a 71% chance. Greece, at 4.50 (18%), is their main challenger. Scotland and Belarus have very little chance.
Group D
France is the strong favorite to top the group, with odds around 1.20, giving them about an 83% chance to qualify directly. Bettors clearly have confidence in France’s top-tier players. Ukraine is expected to battle for second place, holding odds near 6.00, or roughly a 12% chance. Iceland and Azerbaijan face a tough challenge.
Group E
Spain holds almost the highest percentage of chances to qualify – 74%. This makes up odds of about 1.35. Spain’s strong attack and experience make them well-positioned to secure direct qualification. Turkey is the main challenger, with odds near 4.00, or a 20% chance. Georgia and Bulgaria are less likely to top the group.
Group F
Portugal tops the group’s predictions with odds of 1.50 and 67% chance. The fight for second place looks interesting, with Hungary (18% chance, 4.50 odds) and Ireland (15% chance, 5.00 odds) in a tight battle with possible interesting playoffs. Armenia is likely to face a tough challenge.
Group G
Bettors have the biggest expectation to win for the Netherlands, keeping odds at 1.45 with a 69% chance of qualifying. The experience and talent of the Dutch team make me predict that there will not be many surprises on their side. However, at 3.80 (22%), Poland is their main competition for that second spot. Finland, Lithuania, and Malta have very slim chances.
Group H
Austria’s prediction stays at odds of 1.60 ( 62%), while their competitor Romania is at 3.75 (23%). However, despite having lower odds, Romania is expected to be seen in the playoffs. Qualifiers do not seem hopeful for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Cyprus, and San Marino.
Group I
Italy’s experienced and talented team is predicted to qualify directly, with their odds being 1.30 (77%). After Italy, the second place in the group goes to Norway with roughly 4.00 with 20% chance. Israel, Estonia, and Moldova face much tougher odds.
Group J
Belgium is first in predictions with odds of 1.35 (74%) because of their already well-known good play. Wales and North Macedonia are in tight competition for a second place (odds roughly 5.00/6.00), highlight another possible interesting playoff.
Group K
England stands out as the most favourite with a highest percentage out of all groups – 80% (odds at 1.25). Such result likely reflects bettors’ insight into how England’s teams play at home games. Serbia has odds of 4.50, giving them an 18% chance to qualify. The other teams face a tough road to the top.
Group L
Croatia enters Group L as the strong favorite with odds around 1.50 (65%), while the Czech Republic trails as a solid competition at about 2.80 (30%). Montenegro aims for playoffs, while other teams have very low chances.
2026 UEFA World Cup Predictions Final Take
Looking at the big picture, it’s hard to argue against the usual European powerhouses. I see Germany, France, Spain, and Italy as having a very strong chance, around 75- 80%, to qualify directly for the 2026 World Cup. Their teams and recent form put them well ahead of other countries.
| Group | Predicted to Qualify | Odds / % |
|---|---|---|
| Group A | Germany | 1.30 / 77% |
| Group B | Switzerland | 1.80 / 56% |
| Group C | Denmark | 1.40 / 71% |
| Group D | France | 1.20 / 83% |
| Group E | Spain | 1.35 / 74% |
| Group F | Portugal | 1.50 / 67% |
| Group G | Netherlands | 1.45 / 69% |
| Group H | Austria | 1.60 / 62% |
| Group I | Italy | 1.30 / 77% |
| Group J | Belgium | 1.35 / 74% |
| Group K | England | 1.25 / 80% |
| Group L | Croatia | 1.50 / 65% |
The new World Cup format gives more teams a real chance to qualify. Watch out for Hungary, Norway, and Romania – they each have about a 15-20% chance of reaching the finals through the playoffs. If you’re interested more in football, you can read about the Premier League season predictions.